Özet:

The research is devoted to the development of a model for cost distribution of maintenance and repair of electrical equipment when making decisions on the management of the electric power system state. The decrease in the reliability of electric power system operation, caused by the objectively existing aging of electrical equipment, requires consideration of equipment significance when planning the maintenance and repair. For this purpose, it is proposed to use the theory of fuzzy sets, Saati’s method and Boolean programming method. The result of solving the optimization problem of multicriteria analysis is a vector of the best alternatives, built on the principle of dominance. The developed algorithm of complex simulation of the electric power system state and cost distribution of maintenance and repair for making decisions on the determination of priority of electrical equipment out of service allows for effective decision­making. The results of probabilistic and statistical simulation of electric power system states using the Monte Carlo method allow us to take into account the probabilistic nature of emergency situations in the electric power system when determining its weakest elements that require priority replacement. The advantage of the proposed approach is taking into account the technical condition of electrical equipment for risk assessment of the electric power system emergency situation. A comparative analysis of ranking results of electrical equipment based on the emergency risk assessment of the electric power system confirmed the high efficiency of the planning of electric power system states when solving the problems of preventive control. The developed model will be used for further research and development of the algorithm for making effective decisions regarding the operation strategy of the electrical equipment and preventive control of the subsystem operation of the electric power system. The obtained results of complex simulation of the electric power system state and technical condition of the electrical equipment give grounds to assert the possibility of software implementation of operation risk analysis of the electric power system for power supply companies Author Biographies Eugen Bardyk, National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" Peremohy ave., 37, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03056 PhD, Associate Professor, Head of Department Department of electric power plants

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