Özet:

Because poverty varies according to differences in well-being levels in any period and position, it is very important to study the dynamic structure of poverty. In the study, the 2009-2012 Period Income and Living Conditions Research (GYKA) panel micro data survey has been studied by establishing a multinomial logit model for the determiners of households from poverty, transition to poverty and chronic poverty. In the study, the racial effects of the multinomial model were predicted by both the classic and the Bayesyen approach. Although the results were similar with both approaches according to the forecast results, the forecast time with the Bayesyen approach was ten times shorter than the classic approach. In addition, the study found that the characteristics of household residence and households differ from the effects of the household on the transition of poverty and chronic poverty.