Abstract:

In this study, it was aimed to determine the causality relationship between raw milk prices and milk feed prices in Turkey. Toda-Yamamoto Test was used to determine the causality relationship. The research material consists of a 168-month dataset on raw milk prices and milk feed prices between January 2008 and December 2021. According to the results of the research, a causal relationship of 10% from milk feed prices to raw milk prices and 5% from raw milk prices to dairy feed prices was determined. The unit root test of the series was carried out and it was determined that both variables contained a unit root at the level, and the unit root disappeared in the first differences. The optimal lag length in the series was determined as 2 months. Price series do not contain variable variance and autocorrelation. According to all these results, it can be mentioned that there is a causal relationship between raw milk prices and milk feed prices. The expected result when product and input prices affect each other is that if the input prices increase, this will be reflected in the product prices. Due to the large number of breeders in milk production, it can be said that milk prices against reacted at the level of 10% significance to the increases in feed prices, and this reaction occurred as a result of the National Dairy Council's increase in recommended milk prices. In the face of increases in milk prices, it can be stated that the causality in milk feed prices at the level of 5% significance stems from the fact that feed producers are more organized.