Abstract:

This study is designed to develop the formula to calculate the forecasts of the next year, through the past consumption data held at an Education and Research Hospital in the province of Istanbul, and to evaluate the success of this developed formula. In this study, by examining the medical output materials used in a public hospital, by calculating the arithmetic average of the previous five-year consumption data of the selected materials according to the determined criteria, by calculating the average of the month in which the output and the maximum three-month average, by calculating the arithmetic average of these three-month average data obtained, by calculating the monthly consumption amount to be used in the planning of the next year. In the selection of the output materials subject to the study, it was noted that the treatment protocols and usage habits are the minimum of consumption reflection, that there is no material with consumption in the standards that can be achieved with a simple arithmetic average, that there are consumption volatilities in the year and that the stock has been cut once a year, that the names of the material in the stock identification within five years have not changed and that any statistical formulation and the next year consumption quantity is not possible to calculate from the materials. In calculations made through the specified spending materials, the arithmetic average, the output month average and the highest three-month average of the three data obtained after the calculation of the arithmetic average of the next year’s forecast, the error share was found to be less than 20%. In accordance with Article 24 of the Public Procurement Act No. 4735, considering that 20% work increase or reduction can be made, the fault share in the forecast of the next year is less than 20% indicates that the calculation method used is successful.