Özet:

In this study, the relationship between the current account balance, growth (BUY), money supply (M2) and reel effective exchange rate variables (RDK) for Turkey was analyzed for the period 2003Q1-2020Q4 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) and Granger Causality Test. Current account balance excluding energy (EHCD) variable was used as dependent variable in the study. According to the analysis results, a long-term negative relationship was found between BUY and RDK variables with EHCD at the 5% significance level. Granger causality analysis results show that there is bidirectional causality between growth and current account balance excluding energy. Since growth in Turkey is dependent on imports, growth affects the external balance negatively by increasing domestic and foreign demand. On the other hand, there is unidirectional causality running from EHCD to money supply and real exchange rate, and from growth to money supply. In order for Turkey to get rid of the chronic current account deficit problem, it needs to produce export goods with high foreign demand, and reduce its dependence on foreign energy and other imported inputs. In this context, both the risks arising as a result of the current Russia-Ukraine tension and the targets of the Paris Climate Agreement to reduce environmental pollution reveal the importance of self-sufficiency in inputs and investments in renewable energy resources.

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