Abstract:

In this study, temporal changes and trends in the series of annual, seasonal, and monthly evaporation of Çanakkale station of Turkish State Meteorological Service were analyzed. Time series of evaporation data set has been organized as climatological seasons that spring (March, April, May), summer (June, July, August), autumn (September, October, November), and winter (December, January, February). Non-parametric tests and Box-Jenkins method were used to determine climatic trends. Pettitt change-point analysis was applied to determine the change point of evaporation. Trend analysis results showed that a statistically significant increasing trend occurred in evaporation. Mean annual evaporation is estimated to increase 1.4498 mm per year and it is anticipated to reach 215.3356 mm in 2022. Furthermore, mean seasonal evaporation are estimated to increase 1.2251 mm, 1.6485 mm, and 0.4117 mm per year for spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. Therefore, Çanakkale is thought to be affected by global warming and climate change and this effect will continue. Evaporation should be continuously measured and monitoring program should be established to allow sustainable use and management of water resources. Global or regional climate change scenarios and projections must be considered in order to moderate the possible effects of climate change and global warming on Çanakkale.

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