Özet:

In this study, a spatial and temporal analysis was conducted for natural disasters that occurred in Ağrı province, located in eastern Turkey. Natural disasters often occur in the province due to geological, geomorphological, climatic, and hydrographic characteristics. According to data from the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, the province of Ağrı is one of the most vulnerable in our country in terms of natural disasters. Consequently, the disaster statistics from 1955 to 2017 were analyzed in this study to reveal the unsafe condition of this province. A total of 955 natural disasters have occurred in the province of Ağrı according to the disaster data report. Among these disasters, torrents and floods take the first place, followed by earthquakes, landslides, rockfalls, and avalanches. The Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope, Spearman’s Rho, and Kernel density estimation methods were used to determine the future trends of natural disasters in the province. According to the findings of the study, there has been a significant increase in the number of disasters in the province. In the trend analysis findings, the increase in natural disasters between 2010 and 2017 has drawn attention. Geographic Information System programs were used to create thematic maps of disasters and to reveal the average annual disaster frequency, total number of people affected, and spatial distribution of disasters. The distribution maps show that the intensity of natural disasters increases in the areas where the rivers open to the plain, on the slopes, and in fault zones.

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