Özet:

Education systems are related closely to the datum [data] provided by demography according to the both existing population structure and population movement. These datum [data] are used to determine educational policy and planning. This study, in the long run (2010-2050), aims to put forward projections on growth tendency in Turkish education system and to encourage long term strategic thinking on higher education. Study based on long-term population projections puts forward growth projections for 2010-2050 term in higher education by gross enrolment rate and student number. Examined the last decade of higher education in Turkey (1999-2008), the number of student in higher education has increased 75% and enrolment rate (excluding open higher education) has doubled (from 14.8% to 28.6%). In addition, age composition in higher education has been changing and parallel to OECD nations, older student attendance has an upward tendency to grow. In this sense, the share of student group in 23 and above age has increased from 11.3% to 18.5% in the last decade. Similarly, the share of the female students in higher education has an upward tendency to grow. According to the long-term projection study (2010-2050) in Turkey, it has been predicted that the higher education age population in Turkey has a downward tendency gradually, the enrolment rate in higher education will increase from 30% to 50% in 2023 and to 80% in 2050, and the number of students will be doubled till 2023. In addition, it has been expected higher increase rate of student share in the graduate education and in the foundation higher education institutions.

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