Özet:

Background: Some of New Zealand’s exotic pine (Pinus radiata D.Don) forests were planted for erosion mitigation but cultural, legislative, environmental, and profitability limitations in some parts of the landscape have led to reassessment of their suitability. There is limited information to support landowner decisions on the viability of natural regeneration of native forest post-pine-harvest. Methods: We evaluated scenarios of post-harvest natural regeneration, compared to remaining in pine production, using erosion susceptibility determined from historical occurrence of landslides, gullies and earthflows, biophysical growth modelling of mānuka–kānuka (Leptospermum scoparium-Kunzea ericoides (A.Rich) Joy Thomps.) shrubland using the process-based CenW model, and cost-benefit analyses using NZFARM with two land use change scenarios, at two levels of erosion mitigation ± honey profits. Results: In our study area, the Gisborne Region (North Island of New Zealand), ~27% of the land has moderate–very high susceptibility to landslides, 14–22% a high probability of contributing material to waterways, and 19% moderate–very high gully erosion susceptibility. Pines grow 10 times faster than naturally regenerating mānuka–kānuka shrubland, but mānuka–kānuka is used for honey not wood production. Natural regeneration resulted in losses of $150–250 ha-1 yr-1 compared to the current profitability of pine production. Honey production offset some reduction in pine revenue, but not fully. Thus, the viability of shifting from pines to native forest is highly dependent on landowner impetus and value for non-market ecosystem services (such as cultural and biodiversity values) provided by native forest. Conclusions: A mosaic of land uses within a property may sufficiently offset income losses with other benefits, whereby highly erosion-prone land is shifted from rotational pine forest production to permanent native forest cover with honey production where possible. At the regional scale in Gisborne, the conversion of the most highly susceptible land under production forestry (315–556 ha) to natural regeneration has the potential for wider benefits for soil conservation reducing erosion by 1–2.5 t yr–1 of sediment facilitating achievement of cleaner water aspirations and habitat provision.  

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