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Economic aspects of land use in the Kyiv and suburban areas
2020
Dergi:  
BIOECONOMICS AND AGRARIAN BUSINESS
Yazar:  
Özet:

The article is focused on analyzing current state of land use by categories, regional economic and financial data to propose new robust model for economically efficient land use planning for commercial and non-commercial enterprises. The research results can serve as an important material for decision making process on how to develop the land and the City areas in context в new global economic development. It provides extensive overview of existing land use trends for in Kyiv city based on analytical data and scientific assumptions. The Author believe that this research will be beneficial for government, city government, international organizations, private institutions, and researchers.  The goal of the research paper is to build a solid scientific model based on general understanding of underlying economic challenges of efficient land use considering past data, short term and in long term planning. The paper has an overview of city planning documentation and city statistical data in context of real estate, urban population, economic data, including research of real estate and currency exchange rate data to median salary in Kyiv starting from 2000s. It is important not to put too much focus on the existing models and systems, as they rely too much on the assumptions and complicated calculations, that are hard to make use of in real world planning. Instead we build our research on real-world data and developed a forecast of the size of investment in land use, average real estate prices for the next 5 years.  The paper noted an existing problem of inconsistency of the existing norms and regulations in Ukraine concerning rational and effective land use and planning, especially for local authorities and commercial organizations. The author substantiates why the economy in the context of urbanization needs a new look. The paper uses the planning of the city of Kiev. It is a suitable example of a developing city, so the proposed model can be developed based on the city economical and land use data. This research can help solve the existing problems of urbanization in Ukraine and have a positive impact on the economic development of the city and the region. In present times large urban agglomerations serve as none of the major catalysts of economic trends. Urbanization, as process, plays key role in transformation of the local, regional and world economies. Urbanization should be considered an important factor in the development of the economy of both the city and the state. It dictates the path of development of micro- and macroeconomics of regions, although not directly. And in the context of long-term land use and spatial development, this process can play a significant role. The issues of suburban development, industrialization, post-industrialization, environmental problems and the issues of further existence and development of agricultural regions bordering on urban centers (urban agglomerations) cannot be excluded from the field of view. Alongside with new possibilities that arise from large urban economy, great number of challenges that need to be addressed appear. Besides to the economic related issues, irreversible ecology changes (rise of sea level, forest fires etc.) global pandemics and new technologies, manufacturing process must be included in urbanization research. This requires novel approach to how we view city, build economic models, and make forecasts for future development. In this paper we set initial stage for development of such robust economic model, while using data and statistics of Kyiv city. This city can serve as great test ground for proposed model, as it is relatively new urban center, that is part of the developing country economy. The goal of this research work is to analyze current and past land use patterns, outline existing issues and economical inefficiencies in those patterns in large urban city. In addition, we plan to look at land use from several viewpoints, that of the researcher, governmental institutions, commercial company, personal level. This will enable us to make correct assumptions and help build economical model for future land use development.  Research work is based on official statistics data, provided by State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Kyiv city council, Municipal Enterprise “Kyivgenplan”, private real estate companies, economists, and Public cadastral map of Ukraine. We used statistical analytics, mathematical correlation, polynomial and linear approximations, Ratio analysis, utility curves, profit curves and growth models. For predictions modeling key economic parameters were identified. This data was used to build linear dependency models of functions and plotted charts, diagrams based on calculations data. Ukraine does not stand aside from the global challenges of time related to globalization and urbanization. These are indicators such as: significant labor migration, outdated land legislation and inefficient use of land resources. Therefore, the author of the study analyzed the social, environmental, and economic factors influencing the development of the economy of individual united territorial communities of Ukraine with emphasis on the Kyiv city. The main reason for focusing research work on this city is general availability of statistical information and economic data from 2000s. In recent history several events have happened that made dramatic effects on Ukraine and Kyiv land use economics situation. Global financial crisis of 2008 has affected real estate price in Ukraine, in addition to Ukraine currency devaluation. In 2014 military conflict, war, in the east part of Ukraine and Russian annexation of Crimea, had it impact on the housing market, as well as further currency devaluation. Current land area of Kyiv is 82,64 thousand hectares with population of 2 967,4 million people. Land use in Kyiv is classified by following types: Residential buildings; Public buildings; Industrial, research and production and utility territories; Transport infrastructure; Green areas; Water resources; Agricultural companies and other. Analysis of the types of buildings in the capital shows that the largest share in the Residential housing are – private houses 3.76 thousand hectares, and high-rise buildings 8.4 thousand hectares. Non-residential real estate - buildings, premises that are not classified in accordance with the law to the housing stock, are divided into the following types: hotel buildings, office buildings, commercial buildings, garages, industrial buildings and warehouses, buildings for public performances, outbuildings and other buildings. To make better predictions and effectively analyze land use data, we will start with real estate data and general social information - such as monthly salary, average numebr of employees per company, followed by currency exchange rate, average office rent prices and average living apartments price in USD.  According to official data, the average salary for full-time employees in 2020 was 16,186 UAH. As of 2018 the highest monthly wage was in the mining industry (44,405 UAH) and the lowest in construction (8,311 UAH), and health care (8,406 UAH). The prices in Kyiv suburbs are much lower than in the city, with average cost of sq. m being around 13,500 UAH. Based on the State Statistics Service of Ukraine Kyiv city data the housing stock in Kyiv in 2019 had a total area of 59.1 million m2, and an average of 20.2 m2 per person. The total number of apartments in Kyiv was 991.6 thousand. If we look at the state building codes as of 2019, the minimal the minimum area of a one-room apartment is 28 sq. m. At the same time according to State Statistics Service of Ukraine Kyiv city data in 2019 the average available housing area per single person living in Kyiv was 20,2 sq. m. Let’s look at 26600 $ for 28 sq. meters apartment, with average monthly wage of 16,186 UAH, which is 575 $,  for an average it will take 46 month to buy an apartment, if there will be no other expenses and salary is tax free. Median flat rent in Kyiv 2020 – 9.4 $ per sq. m., which makes 263.2$ for 28 sq. meters apartment per month or 7401 UAH. Afterwards we conducted study of enterprise operations statistics between 2018 and 2019. The following data was produced as a result -  the number of business entities was 294,458 companies, number of full-time employees  was 1,149,074 people, the volume of sold products produced by one (average) enterprise was 36,843.35 thousand UAH per year or 3070.2 thousand UAH per month, with the average number of employees in one company being 16 people. Today there are about 500,000 sq. m. of commercial real estate in Kyiv, and according to experts, by the end of 2020 this figure will increase by at least another 150,000 square meters. m. Based on available data we analyzed the average rent price that company need to pay for one month in Kyiv. If one office employee needs at least 6 sq. meters of office space, then the average company that consist of 16 employees will need to rent 96 sq. of office space. Using 2020 data, on average the monthly rent is 2400$ per month, so the company will need to pay 28,800$ per year. The study showed that the average cost of office space as following - 1200$ per sq. m in 2020; 1500$ per sq. m in 2019; 1300$ per sq. m in 2018; 903$ per sq. m in 2017. The author analyzed the dynamics of increasing the number of living apartments by year. In 1995 their number was (in thousands) - 889,4;   2000 – 926,9;   2005 - 984,4;   2010 - 1037,9;   2015 -1112,1; 2018 - 1081,7;   2019 - 991,6.  It should be noted that since 2001 the total area is determined taking into account the summer premises with the established reduction factors. Since 2004, the total area of the housing stock and the number of apartments has included data on bankrupt enterprises and those that have completely ceased operations [stat data]. The population of Kyiv, according to official statistics is as following, by year: 1995 – 2643,8 thou. ppl.; 2000 – 2615,3 thou. ppl.; 2005 – 2666,4 thou. ppl.; 2010 – 2785,1 thou. ppl.; 2015 – 2888,0 thou. ppl.; 2018 – 2934,5 thou. ppl.; 2019 – 2950,8 thou. ppl.; 2020 - 2 967,4 thou. ppl. Total income per all officially employed in Kyiv city: 2010 - 5286,46 UAH, 2015 - 6255,92 UAH; 2018 - 13243,96 UAH; 2019 - 17546,89 UAH. The total share of business income and self-employment as compared to total income in Kyiv per year: 2010 – 8%; 2015 – 4,5; 2018 – 6.3%; 2019 – 6.2%. Another trend is the rapid reduction of vacancies in the Kyiv office centers. During the first half of 2019 the growth in demand and the small amount of new supply of office space led to a decrease in the average vacancy rate from 6.5 to 6%, this data was taken from international real estate agency report. In some office buildings the vacancy was in the range of 4-5%. For comparison: in 2016 on average 16% of the areas were vacant in Kyiv business centers, and in 2015 - more than 20% of spaces were vacant. We analyzed which types of industries have formed the highest demand for real estate office rent in Kyiv in recent years to form this trend. The highest percentage is 52% by IT technologies companies; professional services in various fields – 35%; FMCG – 7%; pharmaceutical companies – 3%, energy companies – 2% and agricultural companies – 1%. A new period of urban development requires new theories and qualitatively new research. It is an indisputable fact that urbanization is a process that will continue. Its pace will be determined by the state of the world and regional economy, as well as innovation and the results of the fourth industrial revolution. In our future research, special attention will need to be paid not only to the economic and social components of the urbanization process, but also to environmental factors. Environmental issues are one of the main problems in the process of urbanization. This is due to the rapid development of infrastructure, development of cities and adjacent areas. And as a result - an uncontrolled very rapid increase in population, an increase in the number of personal transport and the development of new enterprises. All these factors negatively affect the quality of life in cities and can reduce the attractiveness of real estate. Therefore, people do not move to such centers, but begin to build others. The proposed Index of economic feasibility of land use by purpose is a result of mathematical modeling of main economic parameters that include land use, such as land price, real estate prices, investments ratios and personal income levels. It will serve as a foundation to build a more robust economic model that will describe conditions needed for future economic growth, efficient land used patterns in urban and sub-urban areas. It should be noted that for making more accurate future predictions, land use patterns and economic data of close (up to 50 km) and distant sub-urban areas (region) should be studied and added to the model.

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