Abstract:

Climate change is being felt all over the world. The intensity of the parameters that make up the hydrological cycle changes unpredictably. Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) is one of the most difficult parameters of the hydrological cycle to predict. Today, its balance is deteriorating with temperature increases. In this study, the effect of climate change on PET values has been investigated by using monthly average temperature values between 1960-1961 and 2015-2016 hydrological years in the province of Kars, located in the Northeast of Turkey. Thortnthwaite method was preferred as PET calculation method. Data of total 8 observational points within the borders of Kars Province were used. By using the Mann-Kendall trend analysis and Sen's slope method, the trend in PET values was determined. Mapping technique has been used in order to display the spatial and temporal variation of PET values in Kars Province. According to the results, the annual average PET values increased statistically significantly at all observational points. While the highest annual average PET value in the region is at Kağızman station, the lowest annual average PET value is at Arpaçay station. The highest increase in annual PET values was detected at Akyaka station with 5.47 mm/decade, while the lowest increase was in Sarıkamış station with 4.50 mm/decade.

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