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Günümüzde döviz kurları özellikle ihracat ve ithalat üzerinden dış ticaret açığını azaltması ve ekonomik büyümeyi arttırması nedeniyle en önemli makroekonomik göstergeler arasında gelmektedir. Ekonomi literatüründe reel efektif döviz kuru ve ihracat-ithalat değişkenleri arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki J eğrisi ile açıklanmaktadır. J eğrisine göre, reel efektif kurdaki bir düşüş uzun vadede ihracatın artmasına ve ithalatın düşmesini sağlamaktadır. Kırılgan Beşli ülkeleri (Endonezya, Brezilya, Hindistan, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye), 2013 yılından itibaren Amerika Merkez Bankası’nın parasal genişlemeyi azaltmasının döviz kurlarında düşüşe (ulusal paranın değer kaybı) neden olacağı beklentisi olan ülkelerdir. Bu durumdan hareketle Kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde ulusal paranın reel olarak değer kaybının ihracat ve ithalat üzerindeki uzun dönemli etkisinin tespit edilmesi oldukça önemli bir hale gelmiştir. Bu araştırmada, 1994-2019 dönemi arasında Kırılgan Beşli ülkeleri açısından reel efektif döviz kurunun uzun dönemde ithalat ve ihracat üzerindeki etkisi panel eşbütünleşme analizi ile incelenmiştir. Ulaşılan bulgular, Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerinde reel efektif döviz kurundaki (ulusal paranın reel olarak değer kaybı) bir düşüşün ithalatı azalttığı, ihracatı ise etkilemediğini göstermektedir.
Currently, exchange rates are among the most important macroeconomic indicators, especially because they reduce the trade gap through exports and imports and increase economic growth. In economics literature, the long-term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and export-export variables is described by the J curve. According to the J curve, a fall in the real effective rate ensures a long-term increase in exports and a decline in imports. The fragile Five countries (Indonesia, Brazil, India, South Africa and Turkey) are the countries where the reduction of the monetary expansion by the U.S. Central Bank from 2013 is expected to lead to a decline in exchange rates (the loss of value of national currency). As a result of this, it has become quite important to identify the long-term impact of real value loss of national currency on exports and imports in the Criminal Five Countries. In this study, the impact of the real-effective exchange rate on imports and exports in terms of the Criminal Five countries between the period 1994-2019 was studied by panel integration analysis. The findings show that a decline in the real-effective currency currency (the real-value loss of the national currency) in the vulnerable Five countries has reduced imports and exports have not affected it.
Currently, exchange rates are among the most important macroeconomic indicators, especially because they reduce the foreign trade deficit through exports and imports and increase economic growth. In the economic literature, the long-term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and export-Import variables is explained by the J curve. According to the J curve, a decrease in the real effective exchange rate leads to an increase in exports and a decrease in imports in the long term. The Fragile Five countries (Indonesia, Brazil, India, South Africa and Turkey) are countries that expect that since 2013, the Central Bank of America's reduction in monetary expansion will lead to a decreasein exchange rates (depreciation of the national currency). Based on this situation, it has become very important to determine the long-term impact of the depreciation of national money in real terms on exports and imports in the Fragile Five countries. In this study, the effect of the real effective exchange rate on imports and exports in the long term from the point of view of the Fragile Five countries between 1994 and 2019 was examined by panel co-integration analysis. The findings show that a decrease in the real effective exchange rate (depreciation of national currency in real terms) in the Fragile Five countries reduces imports and does not affect exports.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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