Abstract:

In this study, the integration relationship between Turkey's CDS prime in the period November 2002–June 2018 and the real growth rate, inflation, unemployment, open/GDP, real effective currency rate and capital capacity rate was examined by discussing four general election periods. This relationship has been analyzed by the ARDL border test approach. Election periods were determined as the first period (3 November 2002-22 July 2007), the second period (23 July 2007-12 June 2011), the third period (13 June 2011-1 November 2015) and the fourth period (2 November 2015-24 June 2018); the impact of the variables on the CDS prim was studied separately for each period. The ratio between the actual growth rate and the CDS prime was found to be negative in the first and the third period positive. The relationship between inflation and CDS prime has been found to be in a positive direction for the second and third period. The relationship between the first period is positive, the real effective exchange rate and the capital capacity rate and the CDS prime is negative for the first three periods. The unemployment rate does not affect the CDS premium in all periods.