Abstract:

Although our country is not frequently found with hazardous species that cause economic damage or trigger the epidemic year, it has been observed that in the Calliteara pudding (Linneaus, 1758) in 2018 and 2019 in the Inegöl (Bursa) forests the epidemic has caused significant damage. As a result of the larva's eating the sheets of the cave, the trees remain completely unleashed and the increase is lost. Although this species is mainly known as a cranberry harmful, it is nutritious as a polifag in leafed forest trees. In the study, the future projection was modeled using the program MaxEnt 3.4.1 based on the current spread areas of the Calliteara pudibunda in Europe and Turkey and the scenarios developed depending on climate change. The CCSM4 (The Community Climate System Model) 2050 and 2070 RCP (Representive Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios used 19 bioclimate variables. The damage is noted that the current potential spread area of the Black Sea area is largely covered with the areas where the rock is spread, primarily. Furthermore, according to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, when the species’ spread areas model is studied in the 2050-2070 projections, it appears that the future projections of the species also appear as a threat to the native forests. As of today, it is estimated that the current and future potential areas of Calliteara pudibunda, which is harmful in the curvature forests in a limited area in the Inegöl-Tahtaköprü location, may be increasingly increasing.

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