Abstract:

It is important to identify whether there is a long-term relationship between the BIST Tourism Index and the exchange rate, which has an important place in the service sector, and to identify the sensitivity of the tourism index to the exchange rate. The study aims to identify the long-term causal relationship between the exchange rate and the tourism index. Method - The study used BIST Tourism Index and Dolar Dry monthly data for the 2003:M1-2022:M3 period. Firstly, it was determined by taking into account the PP and ADF unit root tests that the series contain or not the unit root. The long-term relationship between the series was analyzed by the ARDL limit test. For the purpose of measuring the causality relationship, the Granger Causal Test was also applied. Results - According to the results of the ARDL limit test, a long-term relationship between the variables has been detected. According to the Granger Causal Test results, a double-directional causal relationship between the exchange rate and the BIST Tourism Index has been identified. It is possible to say that these two variables are the cause of each other. Discussions - It will not be wrong to say that the change in the currency increases or decreases tourism activities or income. The result is similar to the results of some of the studies in literature. Businesses and policy makers operating in the tourism sector should take into account changes in their currency currencies in their plans.

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