Özet:

Companies need control mechanisms such as production planning and control, quality control, stock control, to evaluate their situation and make their future plans. The’s stock retention demands make it possible to develop the methods of stock prediction. In this study, model tests were carried out on the estimate of the determination of the factors that determine the stock amount of the Cement product in the manufacturing and mining sector, which has an important role in the development of our country. First of all, the situation of the relevant sector in the world and in Turkey has been studied. The relationships between the quantity of stock and the predetermined variables affecting the quantity of stock have been studied by Hendry’s General-Special Modeling Method and VAR Method. Specific models for the geographical areas of the Mediterranean and Marmara, which were then selected as examples, were obtained. By establishing multiple regression models for these models, the predictive performance of the models has been assessed regionally. The study period was January 2010 to December 2015 and was studied with a total of 72 data (6 years*12 months). 6 independent variables have been used in the models as a dependent variable with the "stock amount" affecting the stock amount in advance. According to the results obtained, the stock amount in the cement industry is affected by the variables of the "building ciro index" and the "previous period stock amount" for both regions. This study is expected to be a pioneer in the model forecast of stock quantity related to other sectors.

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