Özet:

In real operating conditions of complex systems, random changes in their possible states occur in the course of their operation. The traditional approach to describing such systems uses Markov models. However, the real non-deterministic mechanism that controls the duration of the system's stay in each of its possible states predetermines the insufficient adequacy of the models obtained in this case. This circumstance makes it expedient to consider models that are more general than Markov ones. In addition, when choosing such models, one should take into account the fundamental often manifested feature of the statistical material actually used in the processing of an array of observations, their small sample. All this, taken together, makes it relevant to study the possibility of developing less demanding, tolerant models of the behavior of complex systems. A method for the analysis of systems described under conditions of initial data uncertainty by semi-Markov models is proposed. The main approaches to the description of this uncertainty are considered: probabilistic, fuzzy, and bi-fuzzy. A procedure has been developed for determining the membership functions of fuzzy numbers based on the results of real data processing. Next, the following tasks are solved sequentially. First, the vector of stationary state probabilities of the Markov chain embedded in the semi-Markov process is found. Then, a set of expected values for the duration of the system's stay in each state before leaving it is determined, after which the required probability distribution of the system states is calculated. The proposed method has been developed to solve the problem in the case when the parameters of the membership functions of fuzzy initial data cannot be clearly estimated under conditions of a small sample

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