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 Görüntüleme 21
 İndirme 3
Modeling the influence of inflation on the level of non-performing loans in Cyprus commercial banks
2019
Dergi:  
Technology Audit and Production Reserves
Yazar:  
Özet:

The object of this research is the commercial banks of Cyprus. The paper examines the impact of macroeconomic changes, in particular inflation, on the level of non-performing loans in commercial banks. The macroeconomic indicators studied include inflation rates. The research methodology is based on theoretical and methodological analysis of the scientific literature, statistical and econometric methods, as well as observation, comparative method, description, measurement, analysis and modeling. To develop a statistical model that represents the relationship between inflation rates and non-performing loans in Cyprus, the author uses simple linear correlation and data analysis methods such as the correlation coefficient and the determination coefficient. The research results show that the resulting econometric model is acceptable, since the determination coefficient is equal to 0.504, and inflation indicators are decisive for the level of non-performing loans. This is due to the fact that the correlation coefficient between these variables is –0.710, and according to the Chaddock scale the coupling magnitude is high. In addition, the correlation coefficient of inflation and non-performing loans in Cyprus is statistically significant, since the value of the correlation coefficient is beyond the limits of critical values of |0.468|. Also from the research results it is found that in the case of Cyprus, inflation rates are negatively associated with non-performing loans, since the resulting correlation coefficient is a negative number. The resulting model is not used to compile a short-term forecast, due to the insufficient value of the determination coefficient (50.4 %). In general, it is proposed that policy makers devote considerable attention to the determinants of non-performing loans, as the deteriorating conditions of non-performing loans will affect not only banking institutions, but also the general state of the financial system of Cyprus. The practical significance of the research cited in the work lies in the fact that the research results can be used as reference material for business, government and education. References Bernanke, B., Gertler, M., Gilchrist, S.; Taylor, J., Woodford, M. (Eds.) (1999). The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework. Handbook of Macroeconomics. Vol. 1. Elsevier Science, 1341–1393. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/s1574-0048(99)10034-x European Parliament (2018). Non-performing loans in the Banking Union Stocktaking and challenges. BRIEFING. Available at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2018/614491/IPOL_BRI(2018)614491_EN.pdf Carling, K., Jacobson, T., Lindé, J., Roszbach, K. (2007). Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy. Journal of Banking & Finance, 31 (3), 845–868. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.06.012 Nkusu, M. (2011). Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies. IMF Working Papers, 11 (161). doi: http://doi.org/10.5089/9781455297740.001 Klein, N. (2013). Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance. IMF Working Papers, 13 (72). doi: http://doi.org/10.5089/9781484318522.001 Shu, C. (2002). The impact of macroeconomic environment on the asset quality of Hong Kong's banking sector. Hong Kong Monetary Authority Research Memorandums. Ghosh, D., Vogt, A. (2012). Outliers: An evaluation of methodologies. Survey Research Methods Section – JSM, 3455–3460. Touny, M. A., Shehab, M. A. (2015). Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: An Empirical Study of Some Arab Countries. American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 7 (1), 11–22. doi: http://doi.org/10.3844/ajebasp.2015.11.22 Baboucek, I., Jancar, M. (2005). Effects of Macroeconomic Shock to the Quality of the Aggregate Loan Portfolio. Czech National Bank, Working Paper Series, 1, 1–62. Fofack, H. (2005). Non-performing loans in Sub-Sahara Africa: Casual analysis and macroeconomic implications. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. No. 3769. Washington: World Bank. Available at: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/446961468104639856/Nonperforming-loans-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa-causal-analysis-and-macroeconomic-implications Hoggarth, G., Sorensen, S., Zicchino, L. (2005). Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR Approach. Bank of England Working Paper, 882. doi: http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.872693 Khemraj, T., Pasha, S. (2009). The Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: A Case Study of Guyana. New York: Routledge, 25. Skarica, B. (2014). Determinants of non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countries. Financial Theory and Practice, 38 (1), 37–59. doi: http://doi.org/10.3326/fintp.38.1.2 Abid, L., Ouertani, M. N., Zouari-Ghorbel, S. (2014). Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of household’s non-performing loans in Tunisia: A dynamic panel data. Procedia Economics and Finance, 13, 58–68. doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(14)00430-4 Quagliariello, M. (2007). Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: The case of Italy. Bank of Italy Economic working papers No. 615. doi: http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.970293 Akinlo, O., Emmanuel, M. (2014). Determinants of non-performing loans in Nigeria. Accounting & Taxation, 6 (2), 21–28. Tanasković, S., Jandrić, M. (2015). Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Non-performing Loans. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 4 (1), 47–62. doi: http://doi.org/10.1515/jcbtp-2015-0004 System of National accounts 2008 (2009). The United Nations, the European Commission, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group. Available at: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/docs/SNA2008.pdf Measuring inflation – the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). European Central Bank. Eurosystem. Available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html Creswell, J. (2012). Educational Research: Planning, Conducting, and Evaluating Quantitative and Qualitative Research. Pearson, 338. Correlation Coefficient. Available at: https://www.statisticssolutions.com/pearsons-correlation-coefficient Last accessed: 24.03.2019 Correlation Coefficient: Simple Definition, Formula, Easy Steps. Available at: https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/probability-and-statistics/correlation-coefficient-formula/ Higgins, J. (2006). The Radical Statistician: A Beginners Guide to Unleashing the Power of Applied Statistics in The Real World. Jim Higgins Publishing, 173–205. Interpretation of Correlation. Available at: http://statisticalconcepts.blogspot.com/2010/04/interpretation-of-correlation.html Table of Critical Values for Pearson's r. Available at: http://users.sussex.ac.uk/~grahamh/RM1web/Pearsonstable.pdf Republic of Cyprus, Ministry of Finance. Available at: http://mof.gov.cy/en/ministry-of-finance International Monetary Fund. Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/index.htm Central Bank of Cyprus. Available at: https://www.centralbank.cy

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