Abstract:

The main objective of this research is to provide a framework by which decision-makers can evaluate and compare alternatives for sustainable development planning under uncertain dynamic future considering the risk and uncertainty associated with human judgment as well as the uncertain future. This approach combines the Delphi method, fuzzy set theory, and a discrete multi-criteria method based on prospect theory (TODIM). TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for iterative MCDM) method is a particular multi-criteria approach based on the prospect theory. A qualitative Delphi technique is used to identify a set of qualitative sustainability criteria and to rate the alternatives accordingly. The uncertainties and risks involved in information and judgment within the evaluation process are taken into account by using a hybrid approach called FTODIM (Fuzzy TODIM). The decision making model developed in this research examines three different techniques of aggregating the viewpoints of different decision-makers and explores how the aggregation technique affects the ranking of the alternatives. To demonstrate the potential application of the proposed approach, it is applied to the tourism development of Hendurabi Island in Persian Gulf, Iran for identifying the preferred plan among a set of alternative development plans. This research offers a novel development and application of the combined fuzzy MCDM and the Delphi approach to the Hendurabi Island’s sustainable development.

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