Özet:

This study evaluated factors influencing export performance of ginger (Zinbiger officinale) in Nigeria. Specifically, the research study was designed to achieve the following objectives: examine the short run equilibrium relationships between test variables; evaluate the long run equilibrium relationships between test variables; and determine the linear – interdependence between factors influencing export of ginger. The test variables under considerations were export quantity of ginger (Zinbiger officinale), exchange rate, interest rate, ratio of producer price to domestic price, and ratio of producer price to export price. Data were of secondary sources covering 1995 -2020.The statistical and econometrics tools used to achieve the stated objectives were: Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP), Johansen Co-Integrating Test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test shows that all test variables were non-stationary at level. All test variables were statistically significant at first difference at 5% level of probability. Phillip-Perron (PP) unit root test shows that all test variables were stationary at first difference and were statistically significant. Johansens co-integration test revealed the presence of co-integration among variables and long-term relationships among variables. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) shows that exchange rate (EXR), interest rate (INR), had negative coefficients and was statistically significant in influencing export performance of ginger (Zinbiger officinale) in Nigeria in the short run. Ratio of producer price to domestic price (PP), producer price to export price (PX), quantity of ginger exported (Y) had positive coefficients and were statistically significant in influencing export performance of ginger (Zinbiger officinale) in Nigeria in the short run. In the long run, exchange rate (EXR), interest rate (INR), ratio of producer price to domestic price (PP), ratio of producer price to export price (PX) were statistically significant in influencing export performance of ginger (Zinbiger officinale) in Nigeria. The coefficients of error correction model (ECM) was negative, this measures the speed of adjustment towards the long run equilibrium. The coefficients of multiple determinations (R^2) was 0.6710. This confirmed presence of goodness of fit. The F-statistics of 43.06 was significant at 1% level of significance. This confirmed the explanatory power of the entire model. The RESET value of VECM was 1.510 (P < 0.01) shows no evidence of misspecification of functional form. The research study recommends policy formulations and implementations that will stabilize exchange rate. Interest rate should be single digit. Export market should be developed along the ginger (Zinbiger officinale) value chains and other crops to expand export market base and earn foreign exchange

Anahtar Kelimeler: