Özet:

US plans for Iraq are not succeeding – and are likely to fail disastrously – if the present occupation course is followed, including promotion of a unitary, secular state. Taking into consideration socio-political, institutional, and cultural factors, we explain several paradoxes about Iraq: the strongly nationalistic and powerful “anticolonial” sentiments among many Iraqi; the Sunni-Shi’i cleavage and its power implications; the issue of the Kurds, the history of outside interference in Iraqi affairs and the imposition of inappropriate models of “democratic government”; the historic key role of the Iraqi military; and the problems of the governability of a region with deep divisions. These and related dimensions have implications for establishing a viable future government. The paper goes on to propose a few guidelines for accomplishing stable, peaceful order(s) – in particular, it proposes a transition process with multi-lateral negotiations among major Iraqi groups, the involvement of the EU and the EU candidate state Turkey as well as Iran in mediating roles; and it stresses the importance of considering alternative institutional designs for a future “state of Iraq” and dealing effectively with the substantial issues of minority rights and equitable distribution of oil revenues and other key resources.

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