Abstract:

It is possible to see the origin of the relationship between foreign trade and growth as old as Adam Smith’s works. However, studies on the relationship between these variables began to draw more attention to economists, especially with the spread of the phenomenon of globalization at the end of the 20th century. In the process of globalization, the volume of foreign trade in the countries has grown significantly. One of the countries affected by this process is Poland. There are important reasons to choose Poland in our work. These reasons can be classified as the success in export and growth performance and the fact that the European Union is seen as the growth engine in the near past and future, in terms of national income and export in a similar structure with Turkey and a limited number of studies aimed at testing export-based growth in the country. In the study, the validity of the export-based growth hypothesis for the Polish economy was analyzed by the Johansen integration test method using quarterly periodic export and GDP data between the 1995Q1-2017Q1 periods. The findings show the existence of a positive relationship between exports and GDP. According to this conclusion, a quarter-term increase in exports will increase the GDP.

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