Abstract:

Purpose: The purpose of the study is to determine the effect of different monetary indicators and employment changes on economic growth in Turkey, especially through the effectiveness of the credit channel, which is the monetary transmission mechanism. Design/Methodology: In the study, the cointegration relationship between the variables was tested with the Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) Bounds test, which was made by taking into account the stationarity of the variables. Findings: While employment (IST) and personal loan interest rate (IKF) variables had a positive effect on the industrial production index (SUE) variable at the significance level of 5% in the long-term coefficient estimation, it was seen that the consumer loan interest rate (TUKF) variable had a negative effect. While the money supply (M3) variable had a significance level of 10%, the USD, central bank credits (MBK) and commercial loan interest rate (TKF) variables were found to be statistically insignificant. While 1 unit increase in IST and IKF variable causes an increase of approximately 3 units on SUE, An increase of 1 unit in the TUKF variable causes a decrease of approximately 2.5 units on the SUE. When the M3 variable was evaluated at the significance level of 10%, it was concluded that it caused an increase of 1.43E-08 units on SUE. When the short-run coefficients of the model are examined, It was concluded that the one lagged values of the IST and M3 variables at the 5% significance level were effective on the SUE variable. Limitations: The use of new monetary policy tools that emerged after the banking crises in Turkey and not going back in the historical process is the limitation of the study, and the data after 2006 were used in the study. Originality/Value: In econometric analysis, the findings obtained by using the Python programming language as well as the Eviews package program are presented in a much more detailed and explanatory way. In this context, it is thought that the econometric results, interest rate decisions and explanations of monetary policy implementations for examining the relationship between the variables used and economic growth based on production-related employment and output increase in the monetary transmission mechanism process are considered to be remarkable.

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