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Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin finansal gelişmesi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini incelemeyi amaçlamıştır. Finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyümeye yani arz öncüllü hipotezin geçerliliği analizi yapılmıştır. 1980-2017 yılları arasında finansal gelişmenin göstergesi özel sektöre verilen kredilerin gayri safi yurtiçi hasılaya oranı, ekonomik büyüme göstergesi ise reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla verileri ile analiz yapılmıştır. Değişkenlere ait verilerin ekonometrik analizinde korelasyon testi yapılmış, aynı yönlü güçlü bir ilişki olduğu görülmüştür. Serilerin durağanlıklarını ölçmek için ADF birim kök testi uygunlandıktan sonra seriler durağan hale gelmiştir. ARDL modeli sınır testi ile aralarında %10 anlamlılık seviyesinde eşbütünleşme gerçekleşmektedir. Optimal gecikme uzunluğu Akaike bilgi kriterine göre ARDL (1.0) olarak belirlenmiştir. Değişkenler arasında kısa dönem tahmin analizi yapılmıştır. Finansal gelişmede meydana gelen %1 oranındaki artış kısa dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi 0.781 oranında artırır. Yapısal kırılma testi olarak CUSUM kullanılarak değişkenlerin yapısal kırılma sorunu olmadığı görülmüştür. Değişkenlerin uzun dönemde katsayılarını belirleyebilmek için Sıradan en küçük kareler yöntemi OLS, Tam değiştirilmiş en küçük kareler yöntemi FMOLS, Dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemi DOLS ve Kanonik eşbütünleşme regresyonu CCR yöntemleriyle uzun dönemde katsayıları tahmin edilmiştir. Katsayı tahmin sonuçlarına göre finansal gelişmede meydana gelen %1 oranındaki artış ekonomik büyümede %1 oranından daha fazla bir artış gösterdiği için büyük çarpan yaratmış olduğu görülmektedir. Türkiye için 1980-2017 yılları arasında finansal gelişmede meydana gelen artış ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu yönde etkilemektedir.
This study aimed at examining the financial development and economic growth relationship of Turkey. The financial development of economic growth, i.e. supply-private hypothesis validity has been analyzed. The indicator of financial development between 1980 and 2017 was analyzed by the non-clean domestic earnings rate of loans granted to the private sector, while the indicator of economic growth was analyzed by the real non-clean domestic earnings data. The data on variables in the econometric analysis of the correlation test has been shown to have a strong relationship in the same direction. After the ADF unit root test was matched to measure the stands of the series, the series became stands. With the ARDL model limit test, the combination between them occurs at a level of meaning of 10%. The optimum delay length is determined as ARDL (1.0) according to the Akaike information criterion. A short-term forecast analysis was made between the variables. The increase of 1% in financial growth increases economic growth by 0.781 per cent in the short term. As a structural breakthrough test, CUSUM has shown that the variables do not have a structural breakthrough problem. The average smallest square method is OLS, the fully modified smallest square method is FMOLS, the dynamic smallest square method is DOLS, and the long-term parameters are predicted with the methods of Canonic Equalization Regression CCR. According to the estimated results, the 1% increase in financial development appears to have created a huge impact because it has shown more than 1% increase in economic growth. For Turkey, the increase in financial development between 1980 and 2017 has a positive impact on economic growth.
This study, it is aimed to investigate the relationship in Turkey's financial development and economic growth. The validity analysis of financial development to economic growth is the supply-led hypothesis, has been made. The ratio of loans to the private sector to gross domestic product, which is an indicator of financial development, between 1980-2017, to the gross domestic product, and the indicator of economic growth, was analyzed with real gross domestic product data. In the econometric analysis of the data of the variables, a correlation test was made and it was seen that there was a strong relationship in the same direction. The series became stationary after the ADF unit root test was used to measure the stationarity of the series. With the ARDL model boundary test, cointegration takes place at a 10% significance level. The optimal delay length was determined as ARDL (1.0) according to the Akaike information criterion. Short term forecasting analysis was performed between the variables. %1 increase in financial development increases economic growth in the short term by 0.781. It is seen that variables by using CUSUM test as structural break test have no structural break problem. In order to determine the coefficients of the variables in the long term, the coefficients in the long term were estimated by Ordinary Least-Squares method OLS, Full-Modified Least- Squares method FMOLS, Dynamical Least-Squares method DOLS and Canonical Cointegration Regression CCR method. According to the coefficient estimation results, it is seen that the 1% increase in financial development has created a large multiplier since it has increased more than 1% in economic growth. The increase occurred in financial developments effect between the years 1980-2017 economic growth positively for Turkey.
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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