Abstract:

In this study, a dataset was formed for 2010-Q1 and 2020-Q4 using the factors of economic growth, real exchange rates based on consumer price index (CPI) and inflation variables, which are thought to affect the tourism revenues in Turkey. Within the scope of the study, firstly, the stationarities of the variables used in the analysis were tested by Augmented Dickey Fuller and Vogelsang and Perron unit root tests with break. Then, following an analysis of the cointegration relationship between the factors using Bayer and Hanck cointegration test, the relationship between dependent and independent variables were analyzed by use of the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares method. Lastly, the causality relationship between the variables was examined with the Hacker and Hatemi-J causality analysis. According to the results of analysis, it was established that there is cointegration between the variables used in the presented study and economic growth, real exchange rates based on consumer price index (CPI) and inflation positively affect tourism revenues. As a result of the causality analysis, the causality relationship from tourism revenues to inflation and economic growth has been determined.

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