Özet:

Abstract Purpose. The research is aimed at developing a mathematical model for determining the risks in railway transport during the diagnostics of axle boxes of freight cars, which will provide an assessment of traffic safety in the case of freight transportations. Methodology. To develop a mathematical model for determining the risks in railway transport, a continuous static model of the dependence of the level of individual approach of service personnel on the level of common interests (crew, shift) was used. Three types of dependencies were considered: optimistic, neutral, pessimistic. Findings. A mathematical model has been developed that allows assessing the risks and the level of train traffic safety during the diagnosis of axle boxes of freight cars, as well as determining further measures to reduce risks. In the process of assessing the level of individual approaches and general interests of a particular railway subdivision during maintenance and repair of the axle box of freight cars the variants for the limit possibilities of this subdivision were considered. At the same time extreme values for equilibrium distribution, for a case of dominance of maintenance and for a case of dominance of repairs of freight car’s axle box were established. Originality. For the first time, a mathematical model of risks in railway transport was developed, which is formed during the maintenance and repair of freight cars. It allows determining the level of traffic safety during freight transportations and outlining further measures to reduce risks. The method of studying the efficiency of the system of maintenance and repair of the axle box has been further developed, which, in contrast to the existing one, establishes the  dependence  of the number  of maintenance of axle boxes  on the  number of their repairs  in operation  and  will

Anahtar Kelimeler: