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Çin’in Wuhan kentinde başlayıp kısa sürede dünyaya yayılan Covid-19 salgınının neden olduğu vaka sayısını düşürmek, ölüm sayılarını azaltmak ve pandeminin yayılma hızını kontrol altına almak için devletlerin iktisadi aktiviteleri yavaşlatma kararı ve bu sürecin ne kadar süreceğinin belirsizliği 2008 küresel finansal krizi sonrası düşük büyüme ile süregelen ve ekonomik dengeleri derinden sarsmıştır. Bu süreç öncelikle insan ve halk sağlığına dönük önlemler önem arz etse de yaşamsal fonksiyona dayanan ekonomik durumun görünümüne dair bir projeksiyon gereklidir. Yapılan çalışmada Covid-19 salgınının genel olarak küresel çapta özel olarak da gelişmekte olan ülkelerde olası ekonomik etkileri irdelenmeye çalışılmıştır. Belirsizlik durumu ile birlikte doğal bir biçimde bu yıl küresel ölçekte ekonomik daralmanın yaşanacağı noktasında uluslararası ekonomik kurum ve kuruluşların raporlarında bir uzlaşı vardır. Hem talep hem de arz şokunun birlikte olduğu bir dönemde gelişmekte olan ülkelerin para birimlerinin rezerv para olmaması, mevcut borçlar ile birlikte artan borç yükleri ve de pandemi sürecinden dolayı yaşayacakları dış gelir kaybı nedeni ile daha fazla etkilenecekleri tahmin edilmektedir. Kriz bulaşıcılığının anlam kazandığı bu süreçte 2008 küresel finans krizinden elde edilen tecrübelerle gelişmiş ülke ekonomilerinin gelişmekte olan ülkelerle işbirliği sağlamak suretiyle dünya piyasalarının sağlam bir zemine oturacağını tespit edip bu yöndeki politika uygulamaları önemlidir. Bu süreçte en büyük handikap hem sosyal hayat hem de iktisadi açıdan belirsizlik durumunun varlığıdır. Davranışsal ekonomi bağlamında iktisadi aktörlerin seçim ve tercihlerine dair kararlarda belirsizlik ve risk parametrelerini göz önünde bulundurmaları kaçınılmazdır. Pandemi sonrası gelişmiş ülke uygulamalarına benzer bir tarzda gelişmekte olan ülkelerin mali politikalar alanında kurala dayalı bir model oluşturmaları gereği ortaya çıkacağı düşünülmektedir.
The slowdown decision of the governments for the economic activities and the uncertainty of how long this process will continue in order to reduce the number of cases caused by the Covid-19 epidemic that began in Wuhan, China and spread to the world in a short time, to decrease the number of deaths and to control the pandemic spreading rate, has shaken the ongoing and economic balances with the low growth after the 2008 global financial crisis. Although this process is primarily important for human and public health measures, a projection of the appearance of the economic situation based on vital function is required. In this study, it was tried to examine the possible economic effects of the Covid-19 epidemic globally in general and especially in developing countries. Along with the uncertainty, there is a consensus in the reports of international economic institutions and organizations on the point that there will be a global economic contraction this year. It is estimated that the currencies of the developing countries will be affected more due to the lack of reserve money, the increasing debt from here along with the existing debts, and the loss of foreign income due to the pandemic process, at a time when both demand and supply shock are together. In this process where crisis contagion becomes meaningful, it is important to determine that the developed countries’ economies will sit on a solid ground by cooperating with developing countries, with the experience gained from the 2008 global financial crisis and policy practices in this direction are important. The biggest handicap in this process is the existence of uncertainty both in social life and economically. In the context of behavioral economics, it is inevitable for economic actors to take into account the uncertainty and risk parameters in their decisions regarding their choices and preferences. It is thought that in the developing countries there will be formed a rule-based model in the field of fiscal policies, which are similar to the practices of developed countries after pandemic.
The slowdown decision of the governments for the economical activities and the uncertainty of how long this process will continue in order to reduce the number of cases caused by the Covid-19 epidemic that started in Wuhan, China and spread to the world in a short time, to decrease the number of deaths and to control the pandemic spreading rate, has shaken the ongoing and economic balances with the low growth after the 2008 global financial crisis. Although this process is primarily important for human and public health measures, a projection of the appearance of the economic situation based on vital function is required. In this study, it was tried to examine the possible economic effects of Covid-19 epidemic globally in general and especially in developing countries. Along with the uncertainty, there is a consensus in the reports of international economic institutions and organizations on the point that there will be a global economic contraction this year. It is estimated that the currencies of the developing countries will be affected more due to the lack of reserve money, the increasing debt burden along with the existing debts, and the loss of foreign income due to the pandemic process, at a time when both demand and supply shock are together. In this process where crisis contagion becomes meaningful, it is important to determine that the developed countries' economies will sit on a solid ground by cooperating with developing countries, with the experience gained from the 2008 global financial crisis and policy practices in this direction are important. The biggest handicap in this process is the existence of uncertainty both in social life and economically. Within the context of behavioral economics, it is inevitable for economic actors to take into account the uncertainty and risk parameters in their decisions regarding their choices and preferences. It is thought that in the developing countries there will be formed a a rule-based model in the field of fiscal policies, which are similar to the practices of developed countries after pandemic.
Field : Güzel Sanatlar; Hukuk; İlahiyat; Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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