Abstract:

In this study, the total trade with the countries that Turkey has signed the STA was studied within the framework of the Gravity (Trekim) Model. For this purpose, the first six countries with the highest share in trade under the STA signed to work. In the study, which dealt with the annual data of the period 1985-2019, the panel drawing model was used. The study first predicted the basic drawing model and different models with the extended states of this model. After that, a expanded model was created with the country's effects and the effects of the STAs on the foreign trade of Turkey were tried to be identified by countries. The study found that the income levels of the STAs and countries have a significant and positive impact on the total trade, while the distance between the countries has a negative impact. The extended drawing model also comes according to the results and it has been determined that price variables have more meaningful effects than the population variable.