Özet:

The main purpose of economic policies is to ensure sustainable and balanced growth. The macroeconomic variable in which the effectiveness of the applied economic policies is observed is the gross domestic product. In this study, it is tested whether the gross capital formation, globalization index and the refugee population as common factors in the panel composed of the Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Mexico, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States of America in the period of 1970-2018 and the real gross domestic product per capita as the main variable are stable in the presence of a multi-factor error structure. For this purpose, test developed by Lee (2016) were used. This test is an extension of the cross-sectional expanded panel unit root test (CIPS) proposed by Pesaran (2013) and aims to capture smooth structural changes in deterministic terms modeled by Fourier functions. The statistic proposed here is called the CIPS (BCIPS) statistic extended by break. BCIPS panel unit root test is a second generation unit root test that takes into account the cross sectional dependency between variables. According to the results of empirical analysis, it supports the prediction that cyclical fluctuations of classical economics are stable fluctuations around a deterministic trend.

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