Türkiye sahip olduğu konumu ve coğrafi özellikleri dolasıyla kuş türleri için farklı habitatları barındırmakta ve aynı zamanda da kuşların göç yolu üzerinde bulunmaktadır. Leylek (Ciconia ciconia) Türkiye’ye ilkbaharda gelip son baharda ayrılan bir yaz göçmeni olmasına rağmen sürekli olarakta görülebilmektedir. Anadolu kültüründe de önemli bir yeri olan leyleğin Türkiye’deki dağılımının günümüz ve gelecekteki durumunu ortaya konmuştur. Bu çalışmada Global Biodiversity Information Facility (www.gbif.org) sitesinden çalışma alanına ait leylek verilerinin 2000-2018 yılları arasındaki kayıtları indirilmiştir. Bu veriler İlkbahar için 472, yaz için 457, sonbahar için 159 ve kış için 62 nokta da var verisi şeklinde sınıflandırılmıştır. Altlık olarak Yükselti, Eğim, Engebelilik indeksi, Topoğrafik Pozisyon indeksi ve iklim değişkenleri ArcMap 10.2. yazılımı ile hazırlanmıştır. Modellemede maksimum entropi yöntemi ve gelecek içinde 2050 ve 2070 yıllarına HadGEM2 RCP 4.5 ve RCP 8.5 senaryoları kullanılmıştır. MaxEnt yazılımı ile elde edilen modellerde veriler % 75 eğitim ve % 25 test verisi olarak ayrılarak çapraz geçerlilik testi yapılmıştır. İlkbahar, Yaz, Sonbahar ve Kış mevsimleri için elde edilen modellerin günümüz ve gelecek potansiyel haritaları elde edilmiştir. Modellere en fazla katkıyı iklim değişkenlerin yaptığı onları eğim, engebelilik indeksi ve topoğrafik pozisyon indeksinin takip ettiği belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak Türkiye’de leylek için mevsimler itibariyle gelecek iklim senaryolarında olası bir tehdit görülmemektedir. Özellikle de 2070 yılı RCP 8.5 senaryosu göre tüm mevsimlerde potansiyelin daha iyi olacaktır. Gelecek yıllarda özellikle kuşların Göç Yolu üzerinde bulunan İstanbul Boğazı’nın daha çok kullanılacağı görülmektedir. Bu duruma gelecekteki sıcaklığın artması ve yağışların azalmasının etki edeceği öngörülmektedir.
Turkey, due to its location and geographical characteristics, hosts different habitats for bird species and is also on the migration path of birds. Leylek (Ciconia ciconia) is a summer immigrant who arrived in Turkey in the spring and left in the last spring, although it can be seen constantly. It has also revealed the present and future situation of the distribution of the leyle in Turkey, which is also an important place in the Anadolu culture. This study has downloaded the records of the field of study data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (www.gbif.org) for the years 2000-2018. These data are classified in the form of data that there are 472 points for Spring, 457 points for Summer, 159 points for Autumn and 62 points for Winter. It has been raised as a subtitles, Ivory, Disability Index, Topographic Position Index and Climate Variables is prepared with the ArcMap 10.2 software. The maximum entropial method in the modeling and the future had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had had. In the models obtained with the MaxEnt software, the data was divided into 75% training and 25% test data and cross validity test. The present and future potential maps of the models obtained for the spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons have been obtained. The most contribution to the models is determined by the climate variables that follow them by the inclination, the disability index and the topographic position index. As a result, there is no potential threat in the future climate scenarios in Turkey. Especially in 2070 RCP 8.5 scenario, the potential will be better in all seasons. In the coming years, it is expected to be more used, especially for birds on the Immigration Road of Istanbul. This is expected to affect the upcoming temperature and the decrease of rainfall.
Alan : Mimarlık, Planlama ve Tasarım; Mühendislik; Ziraat, Orman ve Su Ürünleri
Dergi Türü : Uluslararası
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