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Para ikamesi olgusu Türkiye ekonomisinde, 1980’li yıllarda serbest piyasa ekonomisine geçiş ve kambiyo rejiminde yapılan değişiklik ile yer bulmaya başlamıştır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde Ocak 2011-Kasım 2020 dönemi baz alınarak para ikamesinin engellenmesi amacıyla ağırlıklı ortalama fonlama faizinin etkin olarak kullanılıp kullanılmadığı geleneksel ve Fourier nedensellik testleri ile incelenmektedir. Ampirik analizler sonucunda ekonomik aktörlerin nominal döviz kuru beklentilerinde bozulma nedeniyle para ikamesi histerisinin yaşandığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu durumun düzeltilmesi amacıyla politika faizinin etkin olarak kullanılamaması nedeniyle analiz periyodunda faiz oranı histerisi yaşanmamıştır. Çalışmanın temel sorusu olarak ağırlıklı ortalama fonlama maliyetinden para ikamesine doğru hem zaman hem de Fourier alanda nedensellik bulunamamıştır.
The monetary residence phenomenon began to find a place in the Turkish economy, with the transition to the free market economy in the 1980s and the change in the Kamboja regime. In this scope, the study is based on the period January 2011-November 2020 in the Turkish economy and is examined by traditional and Fourier causal tests where mainly average funding interest is used effectively in order to prevent money residence. Ampyric analyses have found that economic actors have had a monetary residence hystery due to disruption in the nominal exchange rate expectations. Due to the failure to effectively use the policy interest in order to correct this situation, there was no interest rate hystery during the analysis period. As the main question of the study, no reason was found in both the time and the Fourier area from the main average funding cost to the money residence.
The phenomenon of currency substitution started in the Turkish economy during the transition to a free-market economy in the 1980s with the changing foreign exchange regime. In this context, the study, based on the January 2011-November 2020 period, Turkey's economy to prevent currency substitution, whether the weighted average funding rate is used effectively or not, is examined by traditional and Fourier causality tests. As a result of empirical analysis, it has been determined that currency substitution hysteria is experienced due to economic actors' deterioration in nominal exchange rate expectations. To rectify this situation, no interest rate hysteresis was experienced during the analysis period due to the inability to use the policy rate effectively. As the study's main question, both time and Fourier domain causality from average funding cost to money substitution could not be found.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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