Abstract:

Purpose: While the demand for energy is increasing rapidly with the industrialization process in the world, energy, which is one of the most important inputs of production, has taken place among the Deciders in international competition. Due to the fact that fossil energy reserves are not distributed homogeneously throughout the world, countries with limited oil and natural gas resources, such as Turkey, have to import a large part of the energy they need for production. The fact that Turkey is a foreign-dependent country in energy and its need for energy is on a constant upward trend according to macroeconomic data causes the “Energy Import” item to assume an important role in the foreign trade deficit. Therefore, it was wanted to emphasize the importance of renewable energy production, energy efficiency and other macroeconomic variables in Turkey's energy imports. Method: With this study, the VAR model was first applied to the series using the alik data for the years 2017 – 2023, then the Johansen cointegration test was performed, and then the Granger causality analysis was performed to determine the Deciency relationship and direction between the variables. Findings: While there is a single causal relationship between Turkey's energy imports and Renewable energy production, Dec-DEM, Energy Exports and Electricity Exports, it has been determined that the direction of causality is from independent variables to dependent variable. In addition, a 1% increase in renewable energy production will provide a 0.34% decrease in Turkey's energy imports, while a 1% increase in support under the YEK-DEM will provide a 0.38% decrease in Turkey's energy imports. Originality: It would be beneficial for Turkey to increase renewable energy production in order to reduce its dependence on energy imports in the coming years, and to increase the power and expand the scope of important support mechanisms such as YEK-DEM developed in this area.

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