Atıf Sayısı
1
Görüntüleme
63
İndirme
18
Ekonomik büyüme ile dış ticaretin yakın bir etkileşim içerisinde olduğu görüşü, uygulamalı literatürde son yıllarda sıkça ele alınan konulardan biridir. Yapılan çalışmalarda ekonomik büyüme ile dış ticaret (ihracat, ithalat) ilişkisi farklı boyutlarda araştırma konusu olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı Gümrük Birliği sonrasında Türkiye’de dış ticaret ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin belirlenmesidir. Bu amaçla; dış ticareti temsilen ihracat ve ithalat değişkenlerine ait veriler, ekonomik büyümeyi temsilen ise GSYİH değişkenine ait veriler 1996-2019 dönemini kapsayacak şekilde yıllık olarak ele alınmıştır. Ekonomik büyüme, ithalat ve ihracat değişkenlerinin artış miktarları ele alınarak eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuç ihracata dayalı büyüme varsayımını destekler niteliktedir. Birim kök testleri uygulanan seriler seviye değerinde durağan değilken I(1) düzeyinde durağan hale gelmiş ve Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ile incelenmiştir. Seriler arasında uzun dönemde bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Granger ikili nedensellik testi sonucunda ise ihracattan ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik bulunduğu tespit edilmiştir.
The view that economic growth and foreign trade are in close interaction is one of the topics that have been frequently addressed in the practical literature in recent years. In the study, the relationship between economic growth and foreign trade (export, import) has been the subject of research in different dimensions. The aim of this study is to determine the causal relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Turkey after the Customs Union. For this purpose, the data of export and import variables representing foreign trade and the data of GDP variables representing economic growth were treated annually to cover the period 1996-2019. The economic growth, import and export variables increasing amounts have been examined by the integration and causality relationship. The result is supporting the assumption of export-based growth. Unity root tests used series were not stagnant at level value while stagnant at level I(1) and studied by the Johansen matching test. It has been found that there has been a long-term matching relationship between the series. Granger’s dual causality test found that there was one-way cause from export to economic growth.
The view that economic growth and foreign trade are in close interaction is one of the topics that has been frequently discussed in the applied literature in recent years. With the studies carried out, the relationship between economic growth and foreign trade (export, import) has been the subject of research in different dimensions. The aim of this study is to determine the causality relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Turkey after the Customs Union. For this purpose; the data of the export and import variables representing foreign trade and the data of the GDP variable representing economic growth are handled annually, covering the period 1996-2019. Co-integration and causality relationship was examined by considering the increase in amounts of economic growth, import and export variables. The result obtained supports the assumption of growth supported by export-led growth. While the series that were applied unit root tests were not stationary at the level value, they became stationary at the I(1) level and were examined with the Johansen cointegration test. It has been determined that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the series. As a result of the Granger dual causality test, it was determined that there is unidirectional causality from exports to economic growth.
Alan : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Dergi Türü : Ulusal
Makale Detay 
Atıf Yapanlar
Benzer Makaleler
PDF Görüntüle
Dergi Bilgisi
Eseri Dinleyin
Bu Sayfayı Yazdırın
Paylaş
Mendeley
