Özet:

The risk management of innovation project can improve the level of risk control of quasi-integration structures (QIS), so as to make more effective decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, an assessment of the risk impact on implementation of innovation project makes this study relevance. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of market risks on the success of innovative QIS engineering projects with the involvement of an economic-probabilistic model based on a conjoint analysis. Research methodology. The article substances the feasibility and results of the application of the method of conjoint analysis – one of the methods of mathematical psychology – to assess the impact of risks on the effectiveness of innovative projects implemented within quasi-integration structures in the engineering complex. Findings. The most likely scenarios for implementing an innovative project in terms of the impact of risk events on the financial result had been found with a help of a conjoint procedure with a fractional factorial design. The relative impact of each risk on the success of the innovation project was evaluated. The rule of deciding on the eligibility of an innovative project by the participants of machine-building QIS was formulated on the basis of the technique of the internal rate of investment return (IRR). Research limitations. The developed methodology is proposed to be used in assessing the impact of risks on innovative projects within machine-building quasi-integration structures. The proposed method of assessing the impact of risks on the financial results of innovative projects within the machine-building QIS can be used in more general situations. Practical implications. The methodology was tested on the example of an innovation project within an innovation and technology cluster, which included six participants: mechanical engineering companies, a service company, a scientific institution and an educational institution. The market and specific inter-corporate risks that influence the results of innovative projects within machine-building QISs were identified and evaluated for operationalization. According to the results of implementation of the methodology, the feasibility of implementing an innovative project within the innovation-technological cluster was substantiated. Originality/value. The scientific novelty of this study is the use of a conjoint analysis methodology to assess the impact of market risks.

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