Abstract:

Housing demand is an important concept in terms of the use of housing both as a compulsory and investment tool. Because especially risk-averse investors tend towards housing demand. This concept is shaped by many factors. One of these factors is mortgage interest rates. Mortgage interest rates represent the direct cost of borrowing for consumers and therefore affect the demand for housing. In this study, the effects of price, income and mortgage interest rates on housing demand are investigated. In this context, yearly data for the period 2013-2021 on the basis of 81 provinces were used. As a result of the regression model estimated by the panel data econometrics approach; it is seen that mortgage interest rates have a negative impact on housing demand as expected. On the contrary, it was concluded that the total number of households and consumer income affects the housing demand positively. In other words, the increase in the number of households increases the need for housing. Similarly, the decrease in mortgage interest rates affects the housing purchase decisions of consumers and consumers demand more housing. That is, the decrease in mortgage interest rates is expected to positively affect the housing demand. According to the results of the study, a 1% decrease in housing loan interest rates increases the housing demand by 1.23%. In addition, the determination of the unit-dimensional model as the appropriate model shows that the effects that cannot be directly observed based on provinces are important in housing demand. According to the results of the analysis, this effect is highest in Istanbul. After Istanbul follows İzmir, Ankara, Bursa and Konya.

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