Abstract:

The fact that 90% of the goods subject to global trade are transported by sea indicates the importance of maritime transport compared to other modes of transport. Baltic Dry Cargo Index, which represents freight charges in maritime transport, and crude oil prices are very important indicators in terms of international trade and economy. In this context, the aim of the study is to examine the relationship between seaway exports and the Baltic Dry Cargo Index and crude oil prices in Turkey. In the study, the short- and long-term relationship between the variables was investigated by using the 2013-2021 monthly data and the ARDL Boundary Test method. According to the result reached in the study; There is a long-run relationship between export by sea, Baltic Dry Index and crude oil prices in Turkey. According to the long-term coefficient results, while the Baltic Dry Index moves in the same direction as the export by sea in Turkey, it moves in the opposite direction with the crude oil prices. While the 1% increase in the Baltic Dry Index increases Turkey's exports by sea by 0.43%, the 1% increase in crude oil prices reduces exports by sea by 0.18%. In the short-term, it was observed that the short-term deviations between the series moving together in the long-term disappeared.

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