Özet:

The research deals with scientific substantiation of the impact of stressful weather factors on the formation of the taste of plum fruits in conditions of the southern steppe subzone of Ukraine and the development of mathematical models to forecast them. For this, fruits of three varieties of plums: Voloshka, Uhorka Italiis'ka, Stanley were selected. The fruits were gathered from trees, typical of the variety and of the same age. Agricultural background at the experimental site satisfied the requirements of the farming equipment. As a result of the studies, it was found that the average content of total sugars in the fruits of the studied plum varieties was 11.4 %, free acids - 0.65 % and was characterized by strong volatility for years of research, as evidenced by the high coefficients of variation. The main stressful abiotic factor that has the most significant influence on the formation of a mass fraction of sugars and organic acids in plum fruits are weather conditions of the last month of fruit formation, i.e., absolute maximum temperature and precipitation during this period respectively. Using the methods of variation statistics, regression models were developed to predict the content of sugars and free acids, depending on abiotic factors, which are as follows: У=0,00222Х1 – 0,064460Х2+0,75256Х3+0,81939Х4–7,20252 – for sugars and У=0,425513+0,005985 Х1 – for acids. As the regression model to predict the taste of the plum fruits from abiotic factors, the model to predict the content of free acids should be used. Author Biographies Марина Єгорівна Сердюк, Tavria State Agrotechnological University, B.Khmelnitsky Avenue, 18, Melitopol, Zaporizhia obl. Ukraine, 72312 PhD, associate professorDepartment of technology of processing and storage of agricultural products

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