Özet:

In this study, the validity of the binary open hypothesis was studied for the Crusader Five (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India and Turkey) countries. In the study discussed for the period 2000 - 2017, panel data analysis methods were used. It can be a big problem that the vulnerable five countries with high offset and budget deficits can create an effective and sustainable financial and monetary policy. In the framework of the study, CADF and SURADF tests were used from the unit root tests that took into account the horizontal cutting dependency. It has not been achieved at all levels and levels in all countries. This is why the Westerlund error correction model is preferred from non-stop panel data models. For short and long-term parameters forecast, the pooled average group forecast and the pooled average group forecast for units were used. According to the empirical results, the growth of 1% in the budget gap in the long term leads to an increase of 0.34% in the open source. In this context, the conclusion was achieved that, in the framework of the traditional Keynesian Approach, the Twin Open Hypothesis was valid. Keywords: Twin Open, Budget gap, Search Open, Non-Standard Panel Data Models, Fragile Five JEL Classification: C23, F30, H62

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Özet:

In this study, the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis Fragile Five (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India and Turkey) have been investigated for their country. Panel data methods were used in the study, which was handled for the period 2000-2017. Twin deficits can be an important problem for the fragile fives of countries with high current account deficits and budget deficits to form an effective and sustainable fiscal and monetary policy. Within the scope of the study, CADF and SURADF tests, one of the unit root tests that take into account horizontal cross-section dependency, were used. Stability at the level and level could not be achieved in all countries. Therefore, Westerlund Error Correction Model, which is one of the non-stationary panel data models, was preferred. Pooled Average Group Estimator and Pooled Average Group Estimator for Units were used to estimate short and long term parameters. According to empirical results, 1% increase in the budget deficit leads to 0.34% increase in the current account deficit in the long term. it is concluded that the twin deficits hypothesis is valid within the framework of Conventional Keynesian Theory. Key Words: Twin Deficit, Debt deficit, Current Account Deficit, Non-Stationary Panel Data Models, Fragile Five Countries JEL Classification: C33, F30, H62