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Dış ticaret ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi çok uzun yıllardır iktisatçıların tartıştığı bir konu olmuştur. Özellikle 1950’li yıllar ile birlikte, uluslararası ekonomik analizde, ihracatın ekonomik büyümenin motoru olup olamayacağı artan ölçüde tartışılmaya başlanmıştır. Özellikle gelişmiş kapitalist ekonomilerde başlayan bu tartışma, bir adım sonra gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde, ekonomik büyümeyi uyarmak ve daha hızlı büyüme sağlamak noktasında, bir model biçiminde gündeme gelmiş ve uygulanmaya başlanmıştır. Ancak ekonomik büyümenin uyarıcıları arasında kabul edilen ihracatın her ülkede ekonomik büyümeyi mutlaka uyarıp uyaramayacağı hala tartışılan bir konudur. Ve hatta bu tartışmanın bir adım ötesinde, günümüzde yarattığı etkiler boyutuyla, ithalatın da ekonomik büyümeyi uyarıp uyaramayacağı da tartışılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada öncelikle kuramsal düzlemde bu tartışmalar incelenmiştir. Ardından literatür taraması yapılarak, dış ticaret büyüme ilişkisi üzerine elde edilen sonuçlar irdelenmiştir. Bunun ardından ise 2006-2018 dönemi dış ticaretinin gelişimi incelenmiş ve devamında Türkiye’de 2006Q1-2018Q3 dönemi dış ticaret verileri kullanılarak, ekonometrik düzlemde Granger nedensellik testi ile Türkiye’de ithalat-ihracat-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin nasıl olduğu araştırılmıştır. Araştırmadan görülen odur ki, incelenen dönem itibariyle, Türkiye’de ihracatın değil, ithalatın etkililiği vardır ve bu etki ithalattan ihracata doğrudur.
The relationship between foreign trade and economic growth has been a topic discussed by economists for many years. Especially with the 1950s, international economic analysis has begun to be increasingly discussed whether exports could be the engine of economic growth. This debate, especially in advanced capitalist economies, has come up and has begun to be implemented in a model, at the point of encouraging economic growth and providing faster growth in developing economies. But it is still a controversial issue that exports accepted among the stimulators of economic growth must not necessarily encourage economic growth in every country. And even a step beyond this debate, with the extent of the effects it creates today, it is also discussed whether imports can not encourage economic growth. In this study, these discussions were first studied in theoretical level. After the literature scan, the outcomes obtained on the growth relationship of foreign trade were revealed. Following this, the development of foreign trade in the period 2006-2018 was studied and continued in Turkey with the use of external trade data in the period 2006Q1-2018Q3, the Granger causality test in the econometric level and how the import-export-economic growth relationship in Turkey was studied. The research shows that, from the examined period, there is the effectiveness of exports in Turkey, not imports, and this effect is true from imports to exports.
The relationship between foreign trade and economic growth has been a topic discussed by economists for many years. Especially in the 1950s, in international economic analysis, it became increasingly debatable whether exports would be the engine of economic growth. This discussion, which started especially in the advanced capitalist economies, is seen as a model in the emerging economies in order to stimulate economic growth and to achieve faster growth, and started to be implemented. However, the question of whether the export to stimulus to economic growth in every country could still a matter of debate. And at the other side, it is also debated whether imports can stimulate economic growth. In this study, firstly, these debates were examined in the theoretical level and then the literature review was conducted and the results obtained from the relationship between foreign trade growth were examined. After examination of the external trade developments of the 2006-2018 period, using 2006Q1-2018Q3 period foreign trade data, via by Granger Causality test was investigated import-export-growth relationship in Turkey. It is seen from the research that there is a causality from import to export in the period 2006Q1-2018Q3.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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