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Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası [TCMB] Bilançosu parasal büyüklük kalemleri ile ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. Araştırmada parasal büyüklük kalemleri olarak merkez bankası parası, parasal taban ve rezerv para kullanılmıştır. 2003Q1-2019Q4 dönemi için değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem ilişkiler Engle ve Granger Eşbütünleşme Analizi ile kısa dönem ilişkiler hata düzeltme modeli ve VAR/Granger Nedensellik Analizi ile değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde sonuçlar, TCMB Bilanço parasal büyüklükleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişkinin bulunmadığı yönündedir. Kısa dönemde ise sadece merkez bankası parası ekonomik büyümenin Granger nedenidir. Diğer taraftan TCMB Bilanço parasal büyüklükleri ile enflasyon arasında hem uzun dönemde hem de kısa dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı pozitif yönlü ilişki mevcuttur. Bu sonuçlar ışığında, politika yapıcıların, özellikle fiyat istikrarı amacına uygun olarak, parasal büyüklüklerin belirlenmesi ve takip edilmesi konusunda hassas olmaları büyük önem arz etmektedir.
The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between the Bank of the Republic of Turkey [TCMB] Balance monetary size pen and economic growth and inflation. In the study, central bank currency, monetary base and reserve money were used as monetary size pennies. Long-term relationships between variables for the 2003Q1-2019Q4 period have been assessed by the short-term relationships with the Barrier and Granger Integration Analysis with the error correction model and the VAR/Granger Cause Analysis. The results from the study are that there is no statistically meaningful relationship in the long term between the TCMB Balance monetary sizes and economic growth. In the short term, only the central bank’s currency is the cause of economic growth. On the other hand, there is a statistically significant positive relationship between TCMB Balance monetary sizes and inflation both in the long term and in the short term. In light of these findings, it is of great importance that policy makers are sensitive to the determination and monitoring of monetary sizes, especially in accordance with the purpose of price stability.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the monetary aggregates items on the Balance Sheet of Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey [CBRT] and economic growth and inflation. In the research, for the monetary aggregates items it is used central bank money, monetary base and reserve money. For the 2003Q1-2019Q4 period, long-term relationships between variables were evaluated using Engle and Granger Cointegration Analysis and short-term relationships Error Correction Model and VAR/Granger Causality Analysis. The results obtained from the study are that there is no statistically significant relationship between CBRT's balance sheet monetary aggregates and economic growth in the long term. In the short term, only central bank money is the Granger cause of economic growth. On the other hand, there is a statistically significant positive relationship between the CBRT's balance sheet monetary aggregates and inflation both in the long run and the short run. In light of these results, it is very important for policymakers to be sensitive in determining and monitoring monetary aggregates, especially in line with the purpose of price stability.
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