Abstract:

Earthquakes have negatively affected countries socially, economically, and demographically throughout history. The increase in population and the construction of buildings that do not comply with legal regulations will significantly increase the impact of the consequences of the earthquake. In this research, the possible earthquake risk that may occur in Istanbul was calculated. The data collected for this study are the distances of the districts to the fault line, the construction years of the buildings in Istanbul, and the earthquakes with Mw>4 in Istanbul and its surroundings for approximately 120 years. These data were taken from AFAD and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Earthquake and Soil Investigation Branch Directorate. Fine-Kinney method (FKM), one of the risk assessment methods, was used in risk calculation. Earthquake intensity, frequency and probability values were used in analysis calculations. In the study, while calculating the probability value in the Fine-Kinney method, the distances of the districts to the fault line were considered, and the frequency value of 268 earthquakes in the past and the construction years of the buildings in the districts were calculated. density value. As a result of the risk analysis, 39 districts in Istanbul were classified as very high risk, high risk, significant risk, possible risk and acceptable risk according to their risk scores. According to the results of the research, Adalar, Bahcelievler, Bakirkoy, Beylikduzu, Kartal, Zeytinburnu districts have the highest risk.

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