Abstract:

Analysis of how the plant material, which belongs to our country and is the most important design element of the landscape architecture professional discipline, will be affected by climate change, is important for the future use of these species in planting studies. The study first estimated the potential spread area in the current conditions of the species, using the Adenocarpus complicatus (L.) Gay’s presence data and WorldClim 2.1 version 2.5 minutes (approximately 20 km2) in local resolution with 19 bio-climate variables. The second step is to determine how species’ spread areas will be affected by climate change. Based on the IPCC report, the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate change model, which is from the models of the model comparison project (CMIP6) created and matched, has modeled the potential spread area for the periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 according to the SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 scenarios of the species. The alansal and local differences between the current and future spread areas produced by species are also revealed by the exchange analysis. According to the findings, the current spread area is appropriate and highly appropriately assessed areas are estimated to be 63,695 km2. As a result, the species’ spread areas are expected to decrease over the years, especially according to the SSP5 8.5 scenario ~2090 in the conditions of Turkey, the species is expected to not be found.

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