Abstract:

: Changes in the consumption price of aquatic products will affect demand and fishermen’s income. The accurate prediction of consumer price index provides important information regarding the aquatic product market. Based on the non-linear and non-smooth characteristics of fishery product price series, this paper innovatively proposes a fishery product price forecasting model that is based on Variational Modal Decomposition and Improved bald eagle search algorithm optimized Long Short Term Memory Network (VMD-IBES-LSTM). Empirical analysis was conducted using fish price data from the Department of Marketing and Informatization of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China. The proposed model in this study was subsequently compared with common forecasting models such as VMD-LSTM and SSA-LSTM. The research results show that the VMD-IBES-LSTM model that was constructed in this paper has good fitting results and high prediction accuracy, which can better explain the seasonality and trends of the change of China’s aquatic product consumer price index, provide a scientific and effective method for relevant management departments and units to predict the aquatic product consumer price, and have a certain reference value for reasonably coping with the fluctuation of China’s aquatic product market price.

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