Abstract:

Climate change affects many sectors directly and indirectly. These sectors are linked to agriculture and agriculture. The increase in temperatures or changes in rainfall, affecting agricultural activities in a field, requires the implementation of harmonisation plans related to these effects, eliminating the negative effects. There have been many studies on temperature and rain trends in Turkey, but the trends in water deficiency and water surplus, which are a function of both of them, have not yet been studied. The knowledge of these trends is important, especially in terms of agricultural planning. This work was prepared to address this lack in literature. The study used monthly average temperature and monthly total rainfall data covering the period between 1971 and 2010 of 183 meteorological stations of the General Directorate of Meteorology, with separate water balances produced for each year according to the Thornthwaite method. The water budget elements were both modeled by linear regression method and the trends were determined by analysing by the Mann-Kendall (MK) line correlation test. According to the results obtained, the monthly water surplus is increasing in the north of Turkey while decreasing in the south, especially in the hot period, the water surplus is increasing throughout Turkey. According to the total annual water excess and water points, Turkey is divided into 4 different regions. These areas are classified as: (a) areas with a decrease in water-water excess, (b) areas with a decrease in water-water excess, (c) areas with a decrease in water-water excess, and (d) areas with a decrease in water-water excess, and (d) areas with a decrease in water-water excess. From agriculture to climate change, it is clear that the most negative impacts will be in "regions with excess water decreased-water point increased" and these areas have come to us as areas that should be planned primarily.

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