Bu çalışmanın amacı, döviz piyasası baskısı ve menkul kıymet piyasaları arasındaki ilişkiyi Türkiye için tespit etmektir. Bu kapsamda, ilk olarak Aralık 2005–Kasım 2017 dönemi için döviz piyasası baskı endeksi hesaplanmıştır. Hesaplanan bu baskı endeksi, inceleme döneminde meydana gelen krizlerin, önemli olaylarla gelen değişimlerin, talep ve politika farklılıklarının ortaya çıktığı yılları tahmin etmede başarılı olmuştur. Döviz piyasası baskı endeksi ve hisse senedi piyasaları arasındaki ilişki için ise, VAR modeli kurulmuş ve Granger nedensellik analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Granger nedensellik analizi sonuçlarına göre, hisse senedi piyasasından döviz piyasası baskı endeksine doğru tek taraflı nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu belirlenmiştir. Hisse senedi piyasasından döviz piyasasına olan bu nedensellik ilişkisi, inceleme dönemi için portföy dengesi yaklaşımının Türkiye için geçerli olduğuna işaret etmektedir.
The aim of this study is to identify the relationship between the exchange market pressure and the currency markets for Turkey. In this context, the exchange market pressure index was first calculated for the December 2005-November 2017 period. This calculated pressure index has succeeded in predicting the years in which crises occurred during the review period, changes occurred with significant events, demand and policy differences occurred. For the relationship between the exchange market pressure index and stock markets, the VAR model was established and the Granger causal analysis was carried out. According to the Granger Causability Analysis results, it has been determined that there is a unilateral causal relationship from the stock market to the exchange market pressure index. This causal relationship from the stock market to the exchange market indicates that the portfolio balance approach for the review period applies to Turkey.
The purpose of this study is to determine relationship between foreign exchange market stress and security markets for Turkey. Within this scope, firstly for December 2005-November 2017 time period, foreign exchange market stress index was calculated. This calculated stress index, has been successful in predicting years in which crisis broke out during research period, changes came with important events, and demand and policy differences emerged. As for the relation between foreign exchange market stress index and stock markets, VAR model was set up and Granger causality analysis was carried out. According to Granger causality analysis results, it was determined that there is unilateral causality relations from stock market to foreign exchange market. This causality relation from stock market to foreign exchange market indicates that portfolio balance approach is valid for research period for Turkey.
Alan : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Dergi Türü : Uluslararası
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