Abstract:

Abstract Introduction: The end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 are being marked by the emergence and spread of the pandemic caused by the new coronavirus. Faced with this challenge, it is essential that the services of the Unified Health System are structured and are able to anticipate the possible care needs that may be necessary. Objective: To quantify the occupancy and deficit of adult beds in the intensive care unit of the Unified Health System (ICU SUS) in the state of Piauí, in possible scenarios faced during the pandemic by the new coronavirus, and to describe an example of a methodological approach for population studies and for forecasting health needs. Method: This is a descriptive analytical observational epidemiological study. Scenarios for the dissemination of the new coronavirus were proposed, and mathematical calculations were used to estimate the deficit and occupancy of the adult SUS ICU beds, for each health macroregion in the state. Results: It was possible to observe that the occupancy rate in the state can go from 355.53%, in the lightest scenario, to 2,664.85% in the most severe one. The bed deficit can range from 328 to 3,591. Conclusions: It was observed that the installed capacity of adult ICU “SUS” beds in the state of Piauí is insufficient for all the proposed scenarios.

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