Özet:

In this study, the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on real domestic product (real GDP) in Turkey in the period of 2006:Q1-2022:Q4 were investigated using Granger causality analysis, Johansen cointegration analysis and error correction analysis (ECM). The study covers open inflation targeting period since 2006 in Turkey and 2008 global economic crisis period and the Covid-19 Pandemic period. In this study, examines the effects of public revenues on real output as well as public expenditures as an indicator of fiscal policy, and study results tests the views of Keynesian and Monetary approaches on efficiency for Turkey. According to the Granger causality analysis, there is a one-way relationship from public revenues to real GDP. According to the Johansen Cointegration analysis, while a 1% increase in public revenues decreases real GDP by 1.12% in the long run, a 1% increase in money supply increases real GDP by 0.97%. According to the ECM analysis, the model error decreases by -0.39 in each quarter, and the model stabilizes in the long run. In the short run, a 1% increase in money supply increases real GDP by 0.18%, while an increase in public revenues decreases real GDP by 0.24%. The results of the study support the Keynesian and Monetary approaches under the constraints of the relevant period and application methods. On the other hand, fiscal policy is relatively more effective on output. In the light of these results, it is thought that especially tax reductions and expansionary monetary policies can yield successful results in increasing real output in Turkey, and therefore an increase in employment may occur depending on these policies.

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