Özet:

Rapid and accurate evaluation of cultivated land quality (CLQ) using remotely sensed images plays an important role for national food security and social stability. Current approaches for evaluating CLQ do not consider spectral response relationships between CLQ and spectral indicators based on crop growth stages. This study aimed to propose an accurate spectral model to evaluate CLQ based on late rice phenology. In order to increase the accuracy of evaluation, the Empirical Bayes Kriging (EBK) interpolation was first performed to scale down gross primary production (GPP) products from a 500 m spatial resolution to 30 m. As an indicator, the ability of MODIS-GPPs from critical growth stages (tillering, jointing, heading, and maturity stages) was then investigated by combining Pearson correlation analysis and variance inflation factor (VIF) to select the phases of CLQ evaluation. Finally, a linear Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) and two nonlinear models, including Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Genetic Algorithm-Based Back Propagation Neural Network (GA-BPNN), were driven to develop an accurate spectral model of evaluating CLQ based on MODIS-GPPs. The models were tested and compared in the Conghua and Zengcheng districts of Guangzhou City, Guangdong, China. The results showed that based on field measured GPP data, the validation accuracy of 30 m spatial resolution MODIS GPP products with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.43 and normalized RMSE (NRMSE) of 1.59% was higher than that of the 500 m MODIS GPP products, indicating that the downscaled 30 m MODIS GPP products by EBK were more appropriate than the 500 m products. Compared with PLSR (R2 = 0.38 and RMSE = 87.97) and SVR (R2 = 0.64 and RMSE = 64.38), the GA-BPNN model (R2 = 0.69 and RMSE = 60.12) was more accurate to evaluate CLQ, implying a non-linear relationship of CLQ with the GPP spectral indicator. This is the first study to improve the accuracy of estimating CLQ using the rice growth stage GPP-driven spectral model by GA-BPNN and can thus advance the literature in this field.

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