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Bu çalışmada, 2016 yılında Türkiye’de meydana gelen ekonomik suç sayılarının bölgesel belirleyicilerinin olup olmadığı incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla, sayım veri modellerinden poisson regresyon, negatif binom regresyon, kesilmiş poisson regresyon ve kesilmiş negatif binom regresyon kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, bağımlı değişken olarak ekonomik suç sayıları ele alınmış ve bağımsız değişkenler olarak yabancı göç, nüfus, coğrafi bölge, okuma yazma bilenlerin oranı, bin kişi başına düşen motorlu taşıt sayısı, tasarruf mevduat miktarı, toplam krediler, ortalama günlük kazanç, nüfus yoğunluğu, Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumu kapsamındaki nüfus oranı kullanılmıştır. Oluşturulan modellerin tahmininden elde edilen sonuçlarda nüfus değişkeninin araştırılan tüm ekonomik suç türlerinde anlamlı ve pozitif yönde etkisinin olduğu belirlenmiştir. Toplumda, düzensiz yabancı göçmenlerin suç sayılarında artışa neden olduğu algısı hâkimdir. Bu algı çalışma bulguları tarafından desteklenmemektedir. Suç türleri ise bölgesel açıdan farklılaşmaktadır. Borç yoluyla da olsa parasal varlığın elde edilmesi suç sayılarını azaltmaktadır. Ayrıca bu bağımsız değişkenlerin, suç türlerine göre azaltıcı ve artırıcı etkiye sahip olabileceği oluşturulan modellerin tahmininden elde edilen sonuçlarla belirlenmiştir.
This study examined whether the number of economic crimes that occurred in Turkey in 2016 was regional determiners. For this purpose, counting data models have been used from poisson regression, negative binom regression, cut poisson regression and cut negative binom regression. The study addressed the number of economic crimes as dependent variables and used as independent variables; foreign migration, population, geographical area, the ratio of readers, the number of motor vehicles per thousand people, the amount of savings deposits, total loans, average daily earnings, population intensity, the ratio of population within the framework of the Social Security Institute. The results obtained from the forecast of the created models have determined that the population variable has a meaningful and positive impact on all types of economic crime investigated. In society, the perception that irregular foreign migrants cause an increase in the number of crimes is judged. This perception is not supported by the findings of work. The types of crime are different in the region. Through debt, the obtaining of the financial asset reduces the number of crimes. It is also determined by the results obtained from the predictions of the models created that these independent variables may have reducing and increasing effects according to the type of crime.
In this study, whether there are regional determinants of the number of economic crimes in 2016 occurring in Turkey are examined. For this purpose, count data models such as poisson regression models, negative binomial regression, trunceted poisson regression and trunceted negative binomial regression were used. In the study, the numbers of economic crimes were used as dependent variables and immigration, population, geographical region, literacy rate, the number of motor vehicle per one thousand people, the amount of saving deposits, total credits, average daily earnings, population density, population covered by the Social Security Institution were used as independent variables. According to the results obtained from the estimation of the models, the population variable is significant and has positive effect on all economic crime types. In community, the perception that irregular foreign migrants lead to an increase in the number of crimes is dominant. This perception is not supported by the study findings. The types of crime differ on a regional basis. Obtaining monetary assets, even through debt, reduces the number of crimes. In addition, it was determined that these independent variables could have decreasing and increasing effect to the crime types according to the results obtained from the estimation of the models generated.
Field : Ziraat, Orman ve Su Ürünleri; Spor Bilimleri
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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