Özet:

Abstract Purpose. The research is aimed at considering the features of calculating the coefficient of deviation in the arrival time of trains to the station from the planned one relative to the expected deviation. Currently, for the management of cargo transportation, one uses the approaches in which such an indicator as the coefficient of deviation is not calculated and not taken into account. In practical implementation, this leads to the fact that the railway transporting cargo does not receive information on the ratio of nominal time deviations to real ones. This situation requires solving the problems of improving the current technologies of the transportation process related to the formation, organization and shipment of cargoes. Therefore, the requirements for the calculation of such factors are relevant. Methodology. To achieve the purpose, it is necessary to rank the collected statistics, group them and analyze them. A mathematical model is proposed for calculating the deviation of the train arrival time from the planned one and the dependence of this deviation from the delivery stage (station) and the number of trains (as a percentage of their total number). Findings. The concept of «deviation coefficient» has been introduced, which characterizes the deviation of the time of train arrival to a station from the planned relative to the expected deviation. Based on the results of the analysis of the deviation of the train arrival time at the station depending on the run, it can be noted that there is a direct relationship between the lateness of trains in hours and the station number (that is, distance). The result remains valid for an arbitrary number of trains (0, 25, 50, 75 and 100% were considered). Originality. The author first introduced the concept of “deviation coefficient”, which characterizes the deviation of the time of train arrival to a station from the planned relative to the expected deviation. Practical value. Based on the presented mathematical model, it is possible to foresee an approximate value of the lateness of trains for a railway line with a large number of stations, if the main characteristics of cargo transportation remain without significant changes, for example, a significant improvement or deterioration of the technical characteristics of the railway infrastructure.

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